Lease Incentive History by Month

I know nobody knows for sure, but do people think there's a decent chance that 2022 lease incentives go back up once 2021 inventory has been sold through? Or maybe during the holidays? If I could score a 2022 GT-line with "old" lease incentive amounts in the $5000-7000, I'd buy that the moment it becomes available....
 
Got a question - if the lease-cash bonuses drop down this low (into the $3500 range), wouldn't it make sense to just finance the car normally thru Kia Motors Finance instead?

They appear to have a 0% APR 66 month period deal going on for Stingers... Also they offer $2000 financing bonus cash too, I think, right? 0% rate vs. ~2.6% APR for most car loans is a difference of over $3000 present value (if I'm calculating TVM correctly) over the lifetime of the car loan. That + lease cash of $2000, and not having to pay the lease early payoff fee, means its a better deal to just straight up finance it, no?

Am I doing something wrong w/ my calculations here?
Correct, only make sense to do a lease buyout if the lease rebate is high enough
 
I know nobody knows for sure, but do people think there's a decent chance that 2022 lease incentives go back up once 2021 inventory has been sold through? Or maybe during the holidays? If I could score a 2022 GT-line with "old" lease incentive amounts in the $5000-7000, I'd buy that the moment it becomes available....

Two scenarios I could think of:
- Covid subsides, and economy is where we were before COVID, Kia brings back 7-12K lease cash (I either got 10k or 12K lease cash, unsure now after taking another look at my lease sheet)
- Kia realizes how much revenue opportunity they lost with 7-12K lease cash and never does that again.
 
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I've talked with a few dealers on 2020s. They are asking more for a 2020 than the equivalent 2021. I guess they'll just keep waiting for those dream customers who'll pay 48 to 50K OTD for a 2020 GT2. There's going to be a lot of 2020 Stinger loaner cars out there.

Still seeing a lot of 2021s out there. Not as many GT1, but lots of GT2/GT/GT-Line . I think the play on those is wait for the April incentives to see if they increase the lease buyout. I could see them bumping it, but I could see them wanting to see what happens to sales with people getting stim checks & tax returns. I don't see 2021 inventory clearing for several months, but color selections may become limited.

2022. On the GT2 they increased MSRP 3K and drop the initial lease cash by 2-3K from prior years. Oooof. I only see 0.9% on 66 mo from Kia not 0%. I can get 2.89% from credit union on 60mo. 2.89% over 60 = $3534 interest, 0.9% over 60 = $1085. So savings on a 47K loan is around $2500 (figure add $50 since Kia gives 66 month) Kinda meh. If I go 2022 I think I slow roll it 4-8 months and watch incentives. They may not have the initial inventory (chip shortage, maybe just produced less) as prior years, but this car was a slow mover before and adding 3K to MSRP isn't going to help.

Happy deal hunting!
 
I am at about 8.5% net discount on a 2021 before the March lease incentive. The dealers here in KC have had the exact same cars on lot for months... not sure how they expect to sell the 21's after 22's hit the lots other than increase the discounts. Problem is, while waiting I drove a Macan and ... well, it is way better than the Stinger, so my decision has become much harder!
 
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2022 Stinger incentives are out. They're pretty minimal. No longer worth doing lease buyouts anymore, unless they change their minds and the amounts go up significantly in the future.

This is frustrating, would have pulled the trigger on a 2022 if the lease incentives were in the same range as 2021 or years past. Hopefully once the 2021s sell off, they'll drop the incentives again.

In the meantime I'm gonna keep tabs on the Nissan Z and see when that's coming out and how that's priced.
 
2022 Stinger incentives are out. They're pretty minimal. No longer worth doing lease buyouts anymore, unless they change their minds and the amounts go up significantly in the future.

This is frustrating, would have pulled the trigger on a 2022 if the lease incentives were in the same range as 2021 or years past. Hopefully once the 2021s sell off, they'll drop the incentives again.

In the meantime I'm gonna keep tabs on the Nissan Z and see when that's coming out and how that's priced.
Hopefully the car market returns to normal over the summer... just so many production disruptions right now!
 
After looking at the 2022 cash/residuals over at Edmunds, I wonder if Kia is changing their pricing strategy on Stingers. They appear to have reduced the incentives, but bumped the residuals, so that somebody who is truly leasing has a similar payment as before, but it is no longer attractive to immediately buy out a lease.

 
I've added the 2022 incentives below. This is a drastic change from past model years.

I think Kia underestimated the residual value of Stingers, as I predicted. Kia hasn't had an enthusiast car before, and Stingers have held their value better than cars like the Cadenza which they may have used for their residual calculations.

I agree with @andyecon. I think Kia realized they could bring up the residual value to more closely match market value while reducing lease cash. Monthly payments wouldn't change much, but profit margins would be much larger. Kia makes their money off the MF (money factor) but doesn't have to pony up a bunch of lease cash to sell the car.

We'll see if there's any significant change for incentives in April, but I wouldn't count on it. Unless lease cash goes up significantly, the 2022 model won't be a good buyout candidate. This goes for both early buyouts and those at the end of the lease term. Simply put - if you want to own a 2022 model, with current numbers, financing or paying cash is the way to go.

For those leasing a Stinger with no intention to buy out at the end, the cost should be similar to past years.

Here's a chart of incentives all the way back to May of 2018 when I started tracking them.

Lease Incentives 3-21 Full.webp
 
I've added the 2022 incentives below. This is a drastic change from past model years.

I think Kia underestimated the residual value of Stingers, as I predicted. Kia hasn't had an enthusiast car before, and Stingers have held their value better than cars like the Cadenza which they may have used for their residual calculations.

I agree with @andyecon. I think Kia realized they could bring up the residual value to more closely match market value while reducing lease cash. Monthly payments wouldn't change much, but profit margins would be much larger. Kia makes their money off the MF (money factor) but doesn't have to pony up a bunch of lease cash to sell the car.

We'll see if there's any significant change for incentives in April, but I wouldn't count on it. Unless lease cash goes up significantly, the 2022 model won't be a good buyout candidate. This goes for both early buyouts and those at the end of the lease term. Simply put - if you want to own a 2022 model, with current numbers, financing or paying cash is the way to go.

For those leasing a Stinger with no intention to buy out at the end, the cost should be similar to past years.

Here's a chart of incentives all the way back to May of 2018 when I started tracking them.

View attachment 57121

thanks a bunch for all the years of updating!
Helped me to decide to lease buyout my Stinger back in Aug/2020
 
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Given the 2022 numbers, I decided to pull the trigger on a black 2021 GT2 with March lease cash. Ended up at net 19.5% off of MSRP after dealer discount and incentive, including tinting and 2 years of maintenance. Not as good as the 2019 deals, but I'm pretty happy!
 
Think the latest lease incentives - as well as the used car prices skyrocketing - are going to push me to a different vehicle.

Freakin' shame. Really liked the Stingers.
 
From interior to exterior to high performance - everything you need for your Stinger awaits you...
Given the 2022 numbers, I decided to pull the trigger on a black 2021 GT2 with March lease cash. Ended up at net 19.5% off of MSRP after dealer discount and incentive, including tinting and 2 years of maintenance. Not as good as the 2019 deals, but I'm pretty happy!
That sounds like a great deal. If you don’t mind me asking could you tell us your payment and lease terms? Was this with any money down?

I have a 2019 GT2 but it is RWD. I really would like to switch to an AWD GT2. However, my local dealer doesn’t have any 2021 models that would work for me. There is one dealer in my state with 3 of them that are perfect. I am trying to gauge how low they will go on the discount.
 
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That sounds like a great deal. If you don’t mind me asking could you tell us your payment and lease terms? Was this with any money down?

I have a 2019 GT2 but it is RWD. I really would like to switch to an AWD GT2. However, my local dealer doesn’t have any 2021 models that would work for me. There is one dealer in my state with 3 of them that are perfect. I am trying to gauge how low they will go on the discount.
Sure, I got mine at Oakes Kia in North KC, but had a very similar deal offered at two other spots.
My MSRP was $53870 (port installed floor mats). Dealer discount was $4600., lease cash of $6700, doc fee of $199, acq fee of $650, and then maybe $50 in govt fees, so final cap was around $43380 (so maybe more like 19.4% off net).

Note that I did accept a MF markup to get just a bit more discount, but am buying the lease out today (my account appeared almost immediately).
 
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Sure, I got mine at Oakes Kia in North KC, but had a very similar deal offered at two other spots.
My MSRP was $53870 (port installed floor mats). Dealer discount was $4600., lease cash of $6700, doc fee of $199, acq fee of $650, and then maybe $50 in govt fees, so final cap was around $43380 (so maybe more like 19.4% off net).

Note that I did accept a MF markup to get just a bit more discount, but am buying the lease out today (my account appeared almost immediately).
The discounts aren’t what they once were and the money factor is actually really low now. It almost makes buying out the lease not worth if you still have to get a loan. If you are paying cash then it still works out very well.

What is that payment on your current lease?
 
The discounts aren’t what they once were and the money factor is actually really low now. It almost makes buying out the lease not worth if you still have to get a loan. If you are paying cash then it still works out very well.

What is that payment on your current lease?
Yeah, the savings over two years from buying out is meaningful, but not enormous even with my marked-up MF.
My pre-tax payment is $676 and about $94 of that is rent. So buying it out saves about $2250 of rent in total. Many credit unions will lend at around 2.5% over 24 months, so if you didn’t buy out with cash then you’d still save a bit by refinancing, but not a ton.
 
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the list of the kia incentives by month i had a question about. where exactly are you guys pulling that from? i can only find 2500 customer cash for leases and would like something to show dealerships if they dont believe me about these incentives amounts that are posted here.
 
From interior to exterior to high performance - everything you need for your Stinger awaits you...
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