Update: I spent the whole day going to three dealers, thinking the expiring incentive and end-of-month scramble would help. Nope.
The first dealer quoted me at MSRP (!!!). When pressured, they agreed to give a $200 discount (!!!!!) and claim they can't do any better. I told them they must be delusional to think they can move the units at that price, but they said another couple is looking at it right now. Maybe they did find a sucker.
The second dealer gave me a $5k discount. I said if you give me another $400 i will sign right now. No dice. I left.
The third dealer quoted me a $3k discount, and refused to even match the quote from the second dealer.
Eventually, I went home without a car