it's starting to happen, is this the future for the Stinger? Volvo S60

[CaliSting]

The classes on the road now don't exceed level 3. I am unaware of any SAE Level 5 (fully autonomous) cars that will be on the road within the next decade. Lots of people say they will have the technology, but that is likely for raising capital and generating interest. Personally, I am not holding my breath for a Level 5 car anytime soon.

As for electric cars, no one is saying that a compelling electric can't be made. With the right money and time, I am sure that you could make a compelling car that ran on human hair and nail trimmings. I merely contend that electric cars are a "solution" in need of a problem. Currently (no pun intended) the energy density or charging rates in batteries doesn't justify the change. That is an area that is rapidly changing but only as long as the "free money" keeps pouring in. The legislative push, fueled by financial incentives for consumers and manufacturers, for renewables and non-carbon fuels is what is driving the current trend of electrification, not consumer demand. As car makers see no end to this legislation then they have to find ways to make people buy electric cars or go out of business.

Read it and weep. I don’t see that reaching 5 is something that starts the revolution in market. level 3 and 4 are all ready making impacts or soon to arrive. And all these major companies disagree with you. As I have indicated I don’t see level 5 for another 5 to 8 years but revolution starts at 4 and those are running around everywhere in Bay Area . Don’t think people would be paying for laser mapping on all streets if they didn’t think technology was a decade off.

https://emerj.com/ai-adoption-timelines/self-driving-car-timeline-themselves-top-11-automakers/

If what you say is true used electric market would crash. However that isn’t the case as Electrics hold even more value than gas powered competition. I also know a lot of Tesla buyers not many did it to save money. They just loved the car and the technology. Same reason tens of thousands are putting down payments on new Porsche EV.

Tesla Model S and X Vehicles Boast Superior Resale Value -- The Motley Fool

 

[Helo58]

Read it and weep. I don’t see that reaching 5 is something that starts the revolution in market. level 3 and 4 are all ready making impacts or soon to arrive. And all these major companies disagree with you. As I have indicated I don’t see level 5 for another 5 to 8 years but revolution starts at 4 and those are running around everywhere in Bay Area . Don’t think people would be paying for laser mapping on all streets if they didn’t think technology was a decade off.

https://emerj.com/ai-adoption-timelines/self-driving-car-timeline-themselves-top-11-automakers/

If what you say is true used electric market would crash. However that isn’t the case as Electrics hold even more value than gas powered competition. I also know a lot of Tesla buyers not many did it to save money. They just loved the car and the technology. Same reason tens of thousands are putting down payments on new Porsche EV.

Tesla Model S and X Vehicles Boast Superior Resale Value -- The Motley Fool

From the article you posted...

"Gill Pratt, the CEO of the Toyota Research Institute, believes “none of us in the automobile or IT industries are close to achieving true Level 5 autonomy, we are not even close.”

There are two important considerations when looking at car company predictions. First, there are a lot of reasons for companies to be slightly overly optimistic, including: Generating national or company pride, earning media attention, boosting engineer recruiting efforts, and appeal to investors. They are few incentives, meanwhile, to be publicly pessimistic. A savvy business reader should always bear this in mind.

The other consideration is that self-driving adoption timelines depend heavily on the regulatory developments in the next few years. Autonomous vehicles require both the right legal and technological frameworks. There is serious liability concerns when machines operate themselves in a potentially dangerous environment. Obviously, a car company doesn’t have much incentive to mass produce a true self-driving car if there is nowhere they can legally drive, or if the legal liability they bear would be considered too risky.​

People are plunking money down of EVs based on manufacturer's promises and media hype for EVs, not much else. Current EVs have a lot of shortcomings when compared with the status quo, hence the incentives. You don't have to bribe someone to purchase highly desirable things, you change them more typically. As for Tesla, they are in a huge mess now for failing to deliver Model 3s on time. Meanwhile competitors have come out with more compelling offerings and have beat them to the market resulting in the cancellation of pre-orders. Tesla will be lucky to be in business 5 years from now. Meanwhile those hedging their bets on ICE with variable compression engines, compression ignition gasoline engines, "other than Otto-cycle engines, etc. will likely be well served for doing so.

Laser mapping of streets has several applications beyond self driving cars. The companies doing the mapping know this and will be able to sell the data to those who want it whether self-driving cars use the tech or not. Other uses include: Asset Mapping, Open Field Surveying, Engineering Planning,Topographic Mapping, City Surveying, Surface Monitoring and Change, Surface Maintenance, Tunnel Mapping, Civil Engineering, and General Mapping.

 

[CaliSting]

From the article you posted...

"Gill Pratt, the CEO of the Toyota Research Institute, believes “none of us in the automobile or IT industries are close to achieving true Level 5 autonomy, we are not even close.”

There are two important considerations when looking at car company predictions. First, there are a lot of reasons for companies to be slightly overly optimistic, including: Generating national or company pride, earning media attention, boosting engineer recruiting efforts, and appeal to investors. They are few incentives, meanwhile, to be publicly pessimistic. A savvy business reader should always bear this in mind.

The other consideration is that self-driving adoption timelines depend heavily on the regulatory developments in the next few years. Autonomous vehicles require both the right legal and technological frameworks. There is serious liability concerns when machines operate themselves in a potentially dangerous environment. Obviously, a car company doesn’t have much incentive to mass produce a true self-driving car if there is nowhere they can legally drive, or if the legal liability they bear would be considered too risky.​

People are plunking money down of EVs based on manufacturer's promises and media hype for EVs, not much else. Current EVs have a lot of shortcomings when compared with the status quo, hence the incentives. You don't have to bribe someone to purchase highly desirable things, you change them more typically. As for Tesla, they are in a huge mess now for failing to deliver Model 3s on time. Meanwhile competitors have come out with more compelling offerings and have beat them to the market resulting in the cancellation of pre-orders. Tesla will be lucky to be in business 5 years from now. Meanwhile those hedging their bets on ICE with variable compression engines, compression ignition gasoline engines, "other than Otto-cycle engines, etc. will likely be well served for doing so.

Laser mapping of streets has several applications beyond self driving cars. The companies doing the mapping know this and will be able to sell the data to those who want it whether self-driving cars use the tech or not. Other uses include: Asset Mapping, Open Field Surveying, Engineering Planning,Topographic Mapping, City Surveying, Surface Monitoring and Change, Surface Maintenance, Tunnel Mapping, Civil Engineering, and General Mapping.

I’m close to supporting industries. I think we are a lot closer than you believe. The companies running around SF Bay Area are strictly high def street mapping in support of autonomous cars.

Number of companies cranking up high volume EV manufacting is mind blowing. Hundreds of thousands of units starting next year.

 

[Helo58]

I’m close to supporting industries. I think we are a lot closer than you believe. The companies running around SF Bay Area are strictly high def street mapping in support of autonomous cars.

Number of companies cranking up high volume EV manufacting is mind blowing. Hundreds of thousands of units starting next year.

Yeah, I am reminded of the rush (or lack thereof) to solar power at the homeowner level. Lots of dead solar companies now in the Bay Area too. I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla purchased the old Solyndra headquarters. btw... they did...

 

[CaliSting]

Yeah, I am reminded of the rush (or lack thereof) to solar power at the homeowner level. Lots of dead solar companies now in the Bay Area too. I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla purchased the old Solyndra headquarters. btw... they did...

Quite a bit different market dynamics. Solar is a commodity product as well. So very very poor comparison. Value proposition of AI enabled cars is a lot different and solar business was low margin biz that moved to China and other low cost manufacturing regions. Solar is very low tech stuff.

 

[Helo58]

Quite a bit different market dynamics. Solar is a commodity product as well. So very very poor comparison.

Solar panels are not commodities. There are 5-7 different technologies for solar panels and different technological generations within each one. I think solar panels are very analogous to electric cars. They are a "green" cause that was highly subsidized by the government resulting in a rapid (and unsustainable without incentives) growth of capital and development. The technology centered on integrating the solution into the existing infrastructure (power grid) and was responsible for the rapid increase in energy storage technologies (batteries) that made modern electric vehicles a possibility. Hardly a monolithic commodity, so very very poor criticism.

 

[CaliSting]

Solar panels are not commodities. There are 5-7 different technologies for solar panels and different technological generations within each one. I think solar panels are very analogous to electric cars. They are a "green" cause that was highly subsidized by the government resulting in a rapid (and unsustainable without incentives) growth of capital and development. The technology centered on integrating the solution into the existing infrastructure (power grid) and was responsible for the rapid increase in energy storage technologies (batteries) that made modern electric vehicles a possibility. Hardly a monolithic commodity, so very very poor criticism.

Good try but I know technology well. Isn’t close to silicon logic and memory or sensor technologies in autonomous or electric cars. Youre kind of out of your league here.

 

[MerlintheMad]

Analogy to autonomous cars: early 20th century push to link metro areas to each other via paved roads. There were only paved roads inner city. Everything between was dirt and mud. To highlight this need, and galvanize efforts to proceed with paved roads everywhere, a "great race" was held: New York to Paris. Several months later the winner arrived in Paris amidst media attention and celebration. (Several months after that, the last place entry finally drove through the streets of Paris virtually unnoticed.) (This event was later the RL basis for the Tony Curtis, Jack Lemon and Natalie Wood movie, "The Great Race".) Today, the laser mapping and other high tech info gathering to a comprehensive database for use with autonomous cars is pursuing a similar goal as the need for real paved roads a hundred years ago: and it will succeed. How quickly? That is the only question. Once the database is complete, it will make autonomous driving legal on all included roadways.

And as I already said, as quickly as EV become easy and quick to recharge, thus being more convenient than ICE, so will ICE fade, and the petrol stations with the fading demand; until only an eccentric fringe interest remains for ICE vehicles. Hopefully, that day will not come soon enough to piss me off. I have enough pissing me off in the Real World already.

EV may only carry us to the true development of replacement tech. EVs are so yesterday. Even with the improvements yet to come I don't see them as the vehicles of the future; only a bridge. They may parallel other developments; and may also form a niche interest, since gearheads love all mechanical toys and collect and use them, etc.

 

[Helo58]

Once the database is complete, it will make autonomous driving legal on all included roadways.

This is inacurate and a GROSS oversimplification of the hurdles remaining prior to a Level 5 autonomous car roaming the streets.

 

[CaliSting]

Thing I love is Porsche family has made electric vehicles for over 100 years. They are coming back to their roots with electric vehicles.

 

[Helo58]

Good try but I know technology well. Isn’t close to silicon logic and memory or sensor technologies in autonomous or electric cars. Youre kind of out of your league here.

I am sorry but I didn't realize that you and I were incapable of understanding technology at the same time. Why would you assume that others don't know technology as well? That doesn't seem, well..., smart. I could be a garbage man or a nano-materials engineer. How would you know? I also have no idea why you even mentioned silicon logic and memory or sensor technologies. Why not spintronics or quantum computing? No one, but you apparently, is saying that solar panels are more/less technological than silicon logic and memory. Maybe you consider solid-state solar thermal fuels and advances in solar panel efficiency as child's play, but MIT doesn't.

I mentioned electric cars were analogous to solar panels. You called solar panels a commodity, I listed several reasons they weren't. What did I miss? How does any of what you said contribute to the topic of electric cars or their viability?

 

[MerlintheMad]

This is inacurate and a GROSS oversimplification of the hurdles remaining prior to a Level 5 autonomous car roaming the streets.

No, it isn't. Because the timing will see it happen. The higher tech of the mapping will allow for less than ubiquitous road conditions: the mapping will firm up the current lack of high definition. And already the "Autopilot" capability of the Tesla allowed a Utah driver to "drive" her car for TWO YEARS before she came a cropper on the rear end of a stationary firetruck waiting at a stop light. The perfect storm conditions that trapped her "autopilot" did not occur for that long. She had not touched the steering wheel for 80 seconds before impact; her motor accelerated for five seconds before impact; the car in front of her forward sensors skipped out of her lane, as she approached the intersection and red light: thus the "autopilot" saw open road ahead and started to reestablish the cruise control setting of 60 MPH. She happened to look up from her "smartphone" in the final instant and hit the brake. She had been using her phone to "search for alternate routes". Oh, the irony! Had she simply learned how to use the NAV in her Tesla, she would have seen the movement of the car in front out of her peripheral vision and averted the crash.

The anecdote illustrates how close we see the tech. It is the mapping that is the choke point, not the tech. "Autopilot" is hubris of the highest degree, and Musk is an idiot. But "driver assist" does a lot. It is happening a lot faster than you or I want to believe.

 

[Helo58]

No, it isn't. Because the timing will see it happen. The higher tech of the mapping will allow for less than ubiquitous road conditions: the mapping will firm up the current lack of high definition. And already the "Autopilot" capability of the Tesla allowed a Utah driver to "drive" her car for TWO YEARS before she came a cropper on the rear end of a stationary firetruck waiting at a stop light. The perfect storm conditions that trapped her "autopilot" did not occur for that long. She had not touched the steering wheel for 80 seconds before impact; her motor accelerated for five seconds before impact; the car in front of her forward sensors skipped out of her lane, as she approached the intersection and red light: thus the "autopilot" saw open road ahead and started to reestablish the cruise control setting of 60 MPH. She happened to look up from her "smartphone" in the final instant and hit the brake. She had been using her phone to "search for alternate routes". Oh, the irony! Had she simply learned how to use the NAV in her Tesla, she would have seen the movement of the car in front out of her peripheral vision and averted the crash.

The anecdote illustrates how close we see the tech. It is the mapping that is the choke point, not the tech. "Autopilot" is hubris of the highest degree, and Musk is an idiot. But "driver assist" does a lot. It is happening a lot faster than you or I want to believe.

What will prevent Level 5 autonomy is more complicated than any single issue such as tech or mapping. There are several issues ranging from corporate, municipality, and personal liability, infrastructure cost sharing, standardization of technologies between manufacturers and governments, prevention of malicious activities (hacking or intentionally confusing the sensors of such cars) etc. that are still major hurdles. Some states may have laws that differ from other states regarding EVs, power grid upgrades to handle the additional demand of widespread UV use will have to happen, future technologies that could render EVs incompatible or obsolete (what happens during an EMP?), consumer reluctance to embrace EVs on a wide scale, etc. What happens when sensors fail or people don't maintain their cars. Think about all you know about your car just from driving it. When you are not driving it, you will know less about the "state" of your car. Others will continue to know nothing of how their car works.

So many things that I am not even thinking of that remain to be resolved. Is the basic technology there? Sure! Is it ready to be implemented across the country any time soon? Nope.

​

 

[MerlintheMad]

So many things that I am not even thinking of that remain to be resolved. Is the basic technology there? Sure! Is it ready to be implemented across the country any time soon? Nope.

"Anytime soon", nope. Agree. I would be surprised if anything more than a regional autonomous driving grid was up and running without issues before 2030. I think we'll have seen one or several serious experiments with it before then. Including mixing live drivers with AI "drivers" on the same roads. Malicious intent isn't really an argument against it, because we already have to deal with that possibility everywhere, all the time. So what if some terrorist nutjob hacks autonomous cars? How is that different from planting IEDs or running amok through crowds of people with a truck?

 

[Helo58]

Malicious intent isn't really an argument against it, because we already have to deal with that possibility everywhere, all the time. So what if some terrorist nutjob hacks autonomous cars? How is that different from planting IEDs or running amok through crowds of people with a truck?

I agree mostly and only mentioned this due to it being a "new" problem that will require a new set of solutions/preventions. I think the main difference is that now the maliciousness can be initiated, sustained, and covered up remotely via a computer/mobile device. IEDs and a truck in a crowd require a physical and local presence. Once cars become automated and rely on a network, they become susceptible to hacking like everything else. I am reminded of the time that the Iranian military jammed and then "fed" bogus GPS information to a US drone and captured it, or the times the computer hacker hacked into Boeing and Airbus airplanes in-flight entertainment systems mid-flight and altered engine settings and caused the aircraft to climb.

 

[SEA Stinger]

I just read that sales of the Tesla Model 3 really jumped starting in mid-year. Sales ranged from 2,400 in January to 7,600 in May. Then sales jumped to 13,500 in July, 17,000 in August, 24,000 in September and 17,000 in October. Total sales of the Model 3 during January - October were over 96,000, more than double the sales of the next biggest-selling car in small and midsize luxury category (Mercedes C-Class).

More details are here:
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/1...ury-car-sales-in-first-10-months-of-2018-usa/

While I am not interested in buying a Tesla, actual Model 3 sales during 2018 indicate that a significant number of other people are voting with their wallets.

Multiple mainstream automakers will be rolling out EVs in the next few years. Should be interesting to see what happens as delivery capability ramps up.

I agree with views stated in this thread that there will still be healthy demand for ICE vehicles. However, it also appears that EV sales are finally on the verge of taking off.

 

[Helo58]

I just read that sales of the Tesla Model 3 really jumped starting in mid-year. Sales ranged from 2,400 in January to 7,600 in May. Then sales jumped to 13,500 in July, 17,000 in August, 24,000 in September and 17,000. Total sales of the Model 3 during January - October were over 96,000, more than double the sales of the next biggest-selling car in small and midsize luxury category (Mercedes C-Class).

More details are here:
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/1...ury-car-sales-in-first-10-months-of-2018-usa/

While I am not interested in buying a Tesla, actual Model 3 sales during 2018 indicate that a lot of other people are voting with their wallets.

A number of mainstream automakers will be rolling out EVs in the next few years. Should be interesting to see what happens as delivery capability ramps up.

I agree with views stated in this thread that there will still be healthy demand for ICE vehicles. However, it also appears that EV sales are finally on the verge of taking off.

The real question to ask is WHY did sales take off. The suggestion is that Tesla has an excessive inventory and (again) incentives to the rescue. You don't have to discount or incentivize highly desirable things. https://seekingalpha.com/article/42...current-prices-may-causing-inventory-problems

 

[SEA Stinger]

Yes, the Model 3's that Tesla is actually offering are over-priced. Musk blew it when he initially announced the Model 3 would sell for $35k, booked a bunch of pre-sales and then pulled the rug out from under his customers by only making high-priced versions available for actual delivery. If I had been one of the initial pre-sale customers, I would be pissed as hell.

Tesla faces a lot of challenges, including some of their own making (e.g., putting impractical and costly gull-wing rear doors on the Model X was idiotic) and others associated with launching a startup in the auto manufacturing industry.

As I indicated previously, it won't be a surprise if Tesla eventually goes under, especially if they don't get it together in the next year or so. When new technologies emerge, it's typical for early entrants to eventually fall by the wayside. However, they do play a valuable role in innovating and creating new markets.

Meanwhile, at least some incumbent auto makers have been watching and (hopefully) learning from Tesla's experience.

Tesla may indeed be having inventory management problems, including those arising from its boneheaded bait-and-switch "strategy" for marketing the Model 3. That still doesn't prove that EVs will be a passing fad.

 

[Helo58]

Yes, the Model 3's that Tesla is actually offering are over-priced. Musk blew it when he initially announced the Model 3 would sell for $35k, booked a bunch of pre-sales and then pulled the rug out from under his customers by only making high-priced versions available for actual delivery. If I had been one of the initial pre-sale customers, I would be pissed as hell.

Tesla faces a lot of challenges, including some of their own making (e.g., putting impractical and costly gull-wing rear doors on the Model X was idiotic) and others associated with launching a startup in the auto manufacturing industry.

As I indicated previously, it won't be a surprise if Tesla eventually goes under, especially if they don't get it together in the next year or so. When new technologies emerge, it's typical for early entrants to eventually fall by the wayside. However, they do play a valuable role in innovating and creating new markets.

Meanwhile, at least some incumbent auto makers have been watching and (hopefully) learning from Tesla's experience.

Tesla may indeed be having inventory management problems, including those arising from its boneheaded bait-and-switch "strategy" for marketing the Model 3. That still doesn't prove that EVs will be a passing fad.

Agreed, there are a host of "future" Teslas that I was just reading about that have all learned from the mistakes of Musk. I am also confident that EVs will be here from now on. I am less sure that in the future they will be the main form of transportation or remain just an alternative to ICE. There are future exhaust catalysts in development now that remove particulate and greenhouse emissions. If they are successful then electric will need to be better and cheaper to overtake or replace ICE.

 

[SEA Stinger]

Agreed, there are a host of "future" Teslas that I was just reading about that have all learned from the mistakes of Musk. I am also confident that EVs will be here from now on. I am less sure that in the future they will be the main form of transportation or remain just an alternative to ICE. There are future exhaust catalysts in development now that remove particulate and greenhouse emissions. If they are successful then electric will need to be better and cheaper to overtake or replace ICE.

Competition spurs innovation - ain't that great?